China’s trade: ‘shocking sign’ as October exports drag and regional rivals prosper, testing ties with global economy

“Furthermore, the relocation of the supply chain may already be driving exports away from China.”

A worrying sign is that the decline in exports is weakening the relationship between China and the global economy.

He is jun

Vietnam, one of China’s favorite investment destinations, saw its exports rise for a second straight month after a 5.9 percent increase in October.

Japan’s exports, meanwhile, turned positive for the first time in September, with auto exports to the U.S. and Europe peaking after a recovery.

He Jun, a researcher at an independent think tank in Beijing, said: “An interesting sign is that the decline in exports points to a weakened relationship between China and the global economy.”

“The relocation of supply chains and the withdrawal of foreign investment from China will have an impact on China’s production and will reduce its exports in the long run.”

South Korea’s exports, seen as a leading indicator of foreign trade performance, rose 5.1 percent last month due to export composition and close economic ties, a year-on-year decline as demand for transportation and machinery improved.

“The external headwinds may seem to be getting stronger, but the worst is likely over for the Korean economy,” said Trinh Nguyen, senior economist at Paris-based investment bank Natixis.

China’s shipments to the U.S. continued to decline last month, down 8.2 percent year-on-year, but down from 9.3 percent in September.

Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which Beijing says are economically and geopolitically important, fell 15.1 percent last month, unchanged from a 15.8 percent decline in September.

We expect most advanced economies to experience mild recession or weakness. [gross domestic product] Development in the near future

The economics of capital
China’s disappointing exports match the contract in the domestic export-order sub-index. October’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index; It may indicate that recent policy support has not fully translated into stronger manufacturing activity amid calls for more aid from Beijing.

Economists at Capital Economics expect exports to slow in the coming months before picking up around the middle of next year.

“Foreign orders measures suggest a sharper slowdown in foreign demand than seen so far in customs data. And we expect most advanced economies to be in mild recession or weak.” [gross domestic product] Growth in the near future, which will weigh their demand for foreign goods.

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China’s foreign trade, however, rose 3 percent to $218.3 billion last month, down from 6.2 percent in September and beating market estimates by 4.7 percent.

HSBC economist Erin Sheen said: “Although the trade data shows an improvement in domestic demand, policymakers still need to provide support for growth amid weak global demand and a sluggish property sector.”

Xin expects to see banks’ reserve requirement ratio — the amount of money banks must hold in reserve — drop 50 basis points by the end of the year, and further cuts in government bond issues in infrastructure.

Beijing has unveiled a number of policies since the summer to revive its stalled economic growth, but the overall recovery remains elusive. Weak as property failure As it continues, local government debt is posing another major threat to the economy.

At the Economist Intelligence Unit, Xu added, “Export data shows uncertainty about the recovery of foreign demand.”

“Increase [in imports] Domestic demand may signal a rebound, but the recovery should be moderate as a weak exchange rate discourages increased imports.

Soybean imports rose 14.6 percent in volume over the 10-month period, year-on-year, while crude oil imports rose 14.4 percent and coal purchases rose 66.8 percent.

The Canton Fair, a barometer of China’s export resilience It also failed to beat expectations. The fair ended its autumn session in the southern manufacturing hub of Guangdong province on Saturday, showing deals that failed to return to pre-pandemic levels.

China needs to rely more on domestic demand to increase growth

Zhang Zhiwei

Elsewhere, China’s total trade surplus stood at $56.5 billion in October, down from $77.71 billion in September.

“Export growth has been slow as economic growth in the US and Europe has slowed. Foreign demand may weaken further in the next six months,” said Zhang Xiwei, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.

“China needs to rely more on domestic demand to boost growth. Picking up import growth is a nice surprise. It’s unclear whether this rebound in imports is indicative of improved domestic demand.”

We need to track other data points like retail sales. However, with fiscal policy becoming more accommodative, a recovery in domestic demand is likely in the coming months.

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