By Vidya Ranganathan and Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, Nov 6 (Reuters) – Major world currencies were stable on Monday investors are bracing for the U.S. dollar to extend declines from late last week after the Federal Reserve toned down its hawkish rhetoric.
Dollar index = USD with the euro down 0.08% to 104.99 EUR = EBS a gain of 0.08% to $1.0738. The dollar index fell more than 1% last week, its heaviest fall since mid-July, and hit a six-week low.
World supplies.MIWD00000PUS also had its strongest week of the year as expectations that the Fed would raise rates gathered steam.
Other indicators such as weakness in US jobs data, weaker manufacturing numbers from around the world and a drop in longer-dated government bond yields are also hurting the dollar, while boosting the pound. GBP = D3Australian dollar AUD=D3 and causing only JPY=EBS to bounce back from the downside of 150 per dollar.
“We always say bad news is good news,” said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets in Auckland. “So it’s good that the Fed and other central banks are expected to end the rate hike cycle early.”
She expected the dollar to remain in a weaker trend until November.
Analysts at JPMorgan Securities, however, sounded a note of caution.
“Dollar bears would do well to temper their enthusiasm,” they wrote. “This is because the pillars of USD strength have weakened but not completely faded and are likely to re-emerge as factors supporting the USD in the medium term.”
Moreover, in addition to further evidence of a slowing U.S. economy, JPMorgan analysts say a sustained dollar selloff needs signs of improvement in the eurozone, China and other regions it says are “remaining weak.”
This is confirmed by the latest manufacturing surveys from China and Europe on GDP and inflation.
Treasury yields fell last week after weaker U.S. jobs and manufacturing data and after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke of “balanced” risks. The US government also cut its refinancing estimate for the quarter and reported lower-than-expected increases in long-term debt auctions.
Yields on 2-year notes US2YT=RR fell 25 basis points in about two weeks, while 10-year yields US10YT=YY it fell near a five-week low and last stood at 4.5891%. The front end of the curve remains deeply inverted.
Futures markets 0#FF: skewed to indicate a 90% chance the Fed hiked and an 86% chance the first policy easing would come as early as June. FEDWATCH
Markets also indicate around an 80% chance that the European Central Bank will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England is easing in August.
The yen reached 151.74 per dollar lat weekneared last October’s lows, prompting several rounds of dollar interventions by the Bank of Japan.
A drop in the dollar and yields helped support gold to $1.984XAU =within striking distance of the recent five-month high of $2,009. GOAL/
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World exchange rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
The EM currency is moving week to date vs the dollar https://tmsnrt.rs/3QIvMSR
Dow Jones Industrial Average https://tmsnrt.rs/45Zj1HN
(Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron-Moore and Lincoln Feast)
(([email protected]; +65 6973 8261; Reuters News: Twitter:@Vid_Ranganathan))
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